Cam Nelson vs Mike Graves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-1-0Record11-2-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
72"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Renzo Gracie PEITeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1681
If they lose-24→ 1633
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cam NelsonMike Graves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cam Nelson51%
Mike Graves 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Cam Nelson a 51% favorite over Mike Graves in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mike Graves's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1658), separated by just 1 points.
Cam Nelson enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Cam Nelson finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Mike Graves 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.