Caolán Loughran vs Ernest Chavez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record10-2-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'8"
68"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight146 lbs
Team KaobonTeamTotal MMA Studios
What's at stake
Caolán Loughran is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ernest Chavez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1661
If they lose-17→ 1629
If they win+17→ 1648
If they lose-15→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Caolán LoughranErnest Chavez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caolán Loughran70%
Ernest Chavez 30%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Caolán Loughran a 70% favorite over Ernest Chavez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Caolán Loughran holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1631, a 15-point edge.
Ernest Chavez enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Caolán Loughran finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Ernest Chavez 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.