Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlo Pedersoli Jr. vs Tim Means

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tim Means
us

Tim Means

“The Dirty Bird”

33-17-1WelterweightUFC

1646Solid

Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record33-17-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'2"
40,0"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Aurora MMATeamFit NHB

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlo Pedersoli Jr.Now 1646
If they win+16→ 1662
If they lose-16→ 1630
Tim MeansNow 1646
If they win+12→ 1658
If they lose-12→ 1634

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.17
Sig. strikes / min
5.04
38%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.65
61%
Strike defense
60%
2.91
Takedown avg.
1.14
44%
Takedown accuracy
40%
0%
Takedown defense
65%
0
Submission avg.
0.16

Trajectory

Carlo Pedersoli Jr.Tim Means
165017002021202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
20 (61%)
5 (36%)
Submission
5 (15%)
4 (29%)
Decision
8 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Carlo Pedersoli Jr.75%
Tim Means 25%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Carlo Pedersoli Jr. a 75% favorite over Tim Means in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1646 vs 1646), separated by just 0 points.

Tim Means enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Carlo Pedersoli Jr. finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Tim Means 76%.

Carlo Pedersoli Jr. and Tim Means share 1 common opponent: Nicolas Dalby.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

Win Decision · 2018
Nicolas Dalby
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2021