Combat Edge Intelligence

Casey Kenney vs Rafael Estevam

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-4-1Record14-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70,0"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight128 lbs
Rise Combat SportsTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Casey KenneyNow 1725
If they win+16→ 1741
If they lose-16→ 1709
Rafael EstevamNow 1725
If they win+16→ 1741
If they lose-16→ 1709

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1664 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.85
Sig. strikes / min
2.10
43%
Strike accuracy
54%
4.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
58%
Strike defense
47%
1.09
Takedown avg.
6.01
36%
Takedown accuracy
39%
61%
Takedown defense
67%
0.43
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Casey KenneyRafael Estevam
1700175020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (13%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
5 (31%)
Submission
3 (21%)
9 (56%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Estevam66%
Casey Kenney 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Estevam a 66% favorite over Casey Kenney in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Casey Kenney's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1725 vs 1725), separated by just 0 points.

Casey Kenney enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Casey Kenney finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.