Ce Liu vs Fabio Gurgel
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-1-0Record3-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'5"Height6'0"
77.6"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
CFPTeamAlliance
What's at stake
Ce Liu is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Fabio Gurgel carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1572
If they lose-25→ 1524
If they win+25→ 1553
If they lose-23→ 1505
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ce LiuFabio Gurgel
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ce Liu60%
Fabio Gurgel 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Ce Liu a 60% favorite over Fabio Gurgel in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Ce Liu holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1549 to 1528, a 21-point edge.
Fabio Gurgel enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ce Liu finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Fabio Gurgel 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.