Combat Edge Intelligence

Cesar Arzamendia vs Nathan Trepagnier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'7"
71,0"Reach67"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
Paraguay Combat TeamTeamAcademy of Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cesar ArzamendiaNow 1501
If they win+16→ 1517
If they lose-16→ 1485
Nathan TrepagnierNow 1505
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.37
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
45%
Strike accuracy
Not available
5.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
56%
Strike defense
Not available
7.32
Takedown avg.
Not available
75%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
0%
Takedown defense
Not available
2.44
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Cesar ArzamendiaNathan Trepagnier
1500155020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (20%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
4 (40%)
Submission
2 (40%)
4 (40%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Trepagnier54%
Cesar Arzamendia 46%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 54% favorite over Cesar Arzamendia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1501 vs 1505), separated by just 4 points.

Cesar Arzamendia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Cesar Arzamendia finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.

Cesar Arzamendia carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.