Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Avila vs Courtney Buck

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-9-0Record12-11-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
39,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamSpartan Martial Arts

What's at stake

Chris Avila is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Courtney Buck carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris AvilaNow 1495
If they win+14→ 1509
If they lose-18→ 1477
Courtney BuckNow 1459
If they win+18→ 1477
If they lose-14→ 1445

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1477 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.37
Sig. strikes / min
1.49
30%
Strike accuracy
28%
4.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.24
49%
Strike defense
55%
0
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
46%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Chris AvilaCourtney Buck
1450150020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (63%)
KO/TKO
9 (75%)
2 (25%)
Submission
3 (25%)
1 (13%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Avila70%
Courtney Buck 30%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Avila a 70% favorite over Courtney Buck in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Chris Avila holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1495 to 1459, a 36-point edge.

Chris Avila finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Courtney Buck 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.