Chris Avila vs Dustin Neace
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-9-0Record25-21-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
39,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight146 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamDamage Incorporated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1513
If they lose-15→ 1481
If they win+12→ 1520
If they lose-12→ 1496
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris AvilaDustin Neace
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Avila70%
Dustin Neace 30%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Avila a 70% favorite over Dustin Neace in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dustin Neace's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1496 vs 1508), separated by just 12 points.
Chris Avila finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Neace 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.