Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Avila vs Kyohei Hagiwara

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-9-0Record9-12-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
39,0"Reach71.1"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamTeam Smoker

What's at stake

Chris Avila is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kyohei Hagiwara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris AvilaNow 1495
If they win+15→ 1510
If they lose-17→ 1478
Kyohei HagiwaraNow 1466
If they win+17→ 1483
If they lose-15→ 1451

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1533 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.37
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
30%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
49%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
46%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Chris AvilaKyohei Hagiwara
14501500202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (63%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
2 (25%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (13%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Avila56%
Kyohei Hagiwara 44%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Avila a 56% favorite over Kyohei Hagiwara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Chris Avila holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1495 to 1466, a 29-point edge.

Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Chris Avila finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.