Chuy Rodriguez vs Justin Buchholz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-0-0Record16-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Agoge Combatives· 1612 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamIndependent
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1553
If they lose-24→ 1505
If they win+12→ 1543
If they lose-12→ 1519
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chuy RodriguezJustin Buchholz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chuy Rodriguez52%
Justin Buchholz 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chuy Rodriguez a 52% favorite over Justin Buchholz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Buchholz's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1529 vs 1531), separated by just 2 points.
Justin Buchholz 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.