Combat Edge Intelligence

Courtney Buck vs Kyohei Hagiwara

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-11-0Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach71.1"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Spartan Martial ArtsTeamTeam Smoker

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Courtney BuckNow 1459
If they win+16→ 1475
If they lose-16→ 1443
Kyohei HagiwaraNow 1466
If they win+16→ 1482
If they lose-16→ 1450

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1477 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1533 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.49
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
28%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.24
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
33%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Courtney BuckKyohei Hagiwara
1450150020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (75%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
3 (25%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyohei Hagiwara70%
Courtney Buck 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 70% favorite over Courtney Buck in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1459 vs 1466), separated by just 7 points.

Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Courtney Buck finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.