Combat Edge Intelligence

Courtney Buck vs Kyohei Hagiwara

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-11-0Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach71.1"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Spartan Martial ArtsTeamTeam Smoker

What's at stake

Kyohei Hagiwara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Courtney Buck carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Courtney BuckNow 1459
If they win+17→ 1476
If they lose-15→ 1444
Kyohei HagiwaraNow 1487
If they win+15→ 1502
If they lose-17→ 1470

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1477 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.49
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
28%
Strike accuracy
Not available
3.24
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
55%
Strike defense
Not available
0
Takedown avg.
Not available
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
33%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Courtney BuckKyohei Hagiwara
1450150020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (75%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
3 (25%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyohei Hagiwara67%
Courtney Buck 33%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 67% favorite over Courtney Buck in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Kyohei Hagiwara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1487 to 1459, a 28-point edge.

Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Courtney Buck finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.