Combat Edge Intelligence

Craig Oxley vs Matteo Martignoni

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-3-0Record3-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
TBDTeamAurora MMA

What's at stake

Matteo Martignoni is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Craig Oxley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Craig OxleyNow 1434
If they win+29→ 1463
If they lose-19→ 1415
Matteo MartignoniNow 1512
If they win+19→ 1531
If they lose-29→ 1483

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1508 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Craig OxleyMatteo Martignoni
1450150015502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (67%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Matteo Martignoni77%
Craig Oxley 23%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Matteo Martignoni a 77% favorite over Craig Oxley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Matteo Martignoni holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1512 to 1434, a 78-point edge.

Craig Oxley enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Matteo Martignoni 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.