Cristiano Oliveira vs Italo Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-3-0Record0-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"HeightTBD
70"Reach-
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Cristiano Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Italo Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1496
If they lose-26→ 1448
If they win+26→ 1478
If they lose-22→ 1430
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cristiano OliveiraItalo Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Italo Diaz57%
Cristiano Oliveira 43%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Italo Diaz a 57% favorite over Cristiano Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Cristiano Oliveira's way (47%).
Cristiano Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1452, a 22-point edge.
Italo Diaz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.