César Almeida vs Damian Pinas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record10-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
74"Reach79"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Lotus MMATeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Damian Pinas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — César Almeida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1648
If they lose-12→ 1616
If they win+12→ 1720
If they lose-20→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1615 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
César AlmeidaDamian Pinas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Damian Pinas90%
César Almeida 10%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Damian Pinas a 90% favorite over César Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Damian Pinas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1628, a 80-point edge.
César Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Damian Pinas enters on a 6-fight win streak.
César Almeida finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Damian Pinas 100%.
César Almeida and Damian Pinas share 1 common opponent: Vitor Costa.
Damian Pinas carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
WinPunches · 2021
WinTKO (Punches) · 2025