Dan Downes vs Melvin Guillard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record32-22-2
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Melvin Guillard is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Dan Downes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1526
If they lose-23→ 1478
If they win+11→ 1532
If they lose-13→ 1508
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1522 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dan DownesMelvin Guillard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dan Downes59%
Melvin Guillard 41%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Dan Downes a 59% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Melvin Guillard's way (47%).
Melvin Guillard holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1501, a 20-point edge.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Dan Downes finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.