Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Lacerda vs Hiroya Kondo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-6-0Record10-16-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'5"
70"Reach-
135 lbsWeight126 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamJapan Top Team

What's at stake

Daniel Lacerda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Hiroya Kondo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel LacerdaNow 1507
If they win+14→ 1521
If they lose-18→ 1489
Hiroya KondoNow 1472
If they win+13→ 1485
If they lose-11→ 1461

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.95
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
46%
Strike accuracy
TBD
8.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
35%
Strike defense
TBD
2.32
Takedown avg.
TBD
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.16
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Daniel LacerdaHiroya Kondo
14501500155020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
7 (58%)
Submission
3 (30%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Hiroya Kondo60%
Daniel Lacerda 40%Elo baseline: 45%

The Combat Edge model makes Hiroya Kondo a 60% favorite over Daniel Lacerda in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daniel Lacerda's way (45%).

Daniel Lacerda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1507 to 1472, a 35-point edge.

Hiroya Kondo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Daniel Lacerda finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Hiroya Kondo 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.