Combat Edge Intelligence

David Zawada vs Ryan Gerena

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-10-0Record4-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight171 lbs
UFD GymTeamVamos BJJ

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

David ZawadaNow 1584
If they win+12→ 1596
If they lose-12→ 1572
Ryan GerenaNow 1584
If they win+24→ 1608
If they lose-24→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.84
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
41%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
56%
Strike defense
TBD
0.97
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
57%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.69
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

David ZawadaRyan Gerena
1500155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (63%)
KO/TKO
3 (75%)
5 (26%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (11%)
Decision
1 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryan Gerena60%
David Zawada 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Gerena a 60% favorite over David Zawada in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans David Zawada's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1584 vs 1584), separated by just 0 points.

David Zawada enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Ryan Gerena enters on a 4-fight win streak.

David Zawada finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Gerena 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.