Davlet Karataev vs Tim Means
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record33-17-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'2"
69"Reach75"
157 lbsWeight170 lbs
Spitfire Gym Berlin· 1605 avg Elo · 9 ratedTeamFit NHB· 1626 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1661
If they lose-16→ 1629
If they win+12→ 1657
If they lose-12→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1501 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Davlet KarataevTim Means
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Means66%
Davlet Karataev 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Means a 66% favorite over Davlet Karataev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Davlet Karataev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1645 vs 1645), separated by just 0 points.
Davlet Karataev enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Tim Means enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Davlet Karataev finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Tim Means 76%.
Tim Means carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.