Dean Lister vs Fraser Paterson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-7-0Record2-0-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Victory MMATeamGriphouse
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1574
If they lose-16→ 1542
If they win+24→ 1588
If they lose-24→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dean ListerFraser Paterson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fraser Paterson70%
Dean Lister 30%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Fraser Paterson a 70% favorite over Dean Lister in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1558 vs 1564), separated by just 6 points.
Dean Lister enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Fraser Paterson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Dean Lister finishes 85% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.