Combat Edge Intelligence

Dedrek Sanders vs Nathan Trepagnier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'7"
70"Reach67"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
Anchorage Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamAcademy of Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dedrek SandersNow 1499
If they win+24→ 1523
If they lose-24→ 1475
Nathan TrepagnierNow 1505
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1578 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Dedrek SandersNathan Trepagnier
14501500202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (44%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
2 (22%)
Submission
2 (40%)
3 (33%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Trepagnier70%
Dedrek Sanders 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 70% favorite over Dedrek Sanders in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1499 vs 1505), separated by just 6 points.

Dedrek Sanders finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.

Dedrek Sanders carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.