Combat Edge Intelligence

Deniz Ilbay vs Jessie Rosas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Deniz Ilbay
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Deniz Ilbay

“El Pistolero”

9-3-0FeatherweightOKMMA

1597Solid

Tale of the tape

9-3-0Record8-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
70"Reach68"
146 lbsWeight135 lbs
UFD GymTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Deniz IlbayNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581
Jessie RosasNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1511 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Deniz IlbayJessie Rosas
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (67%)
KO/TKO
2 (29%)
1 (11%)
Submission
4 (57%)
2 (22%)
Decision
1 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Deniz Ilbay57%
Jessie Rosas 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Deniz Ilbay a 57% favorite over Jessie Rosas in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jessie Rosas's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1597 vs 1599), separated by just 2 points.

Deniz Ilbay finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Jessie Rosas 86%.

Deniz Ilbay carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.