Diego Costa vs Nate Smith
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-2-0Record8-4-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
-ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Five RoundsTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1563
If they lose-24→ 1515
If they win+16→ 1560
If they lose-16→ 1528
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1513 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Diego CostaNate Smith
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Smith57%
Diego Costa 43%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Smith a 57% favorite over Diego Costa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1539 vs 1544), separated by just 5 points.
Diego Costa finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Nate Smith 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.