Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Saraiva vs Shaheen Santana

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-20-1Record8-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
149 lbsWeight148 lbs
Team OctopusTeamMMA Masters

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Diego SaraivaNow 1552
If they win+12→ 1564
If they lose-12→ 1540
Shaheen SantanaNow 1557
If they win+16→ 1573
If they lose-16→ 1541

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.64
Sig. strikes / min
0.82
33%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.58
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.65
62%
Strike defense
40%
1.33
Takedown avg.
0
40%
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
0%
0.67
Submission avg.
2.75

Trajectory

Diego SaraivaShaheen Santana
15501600201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (18%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
14 (64%)
Submission
6 (75%)
4 (18%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Shaheen Santana70%
Diego Saraiva 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Shaheen Santana a 70% favorite over Diego Saraiva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1552 vs 1557), separated by just 5 points.

Diego Saraiva enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Diego Saraiva finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Shaheen Santana 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.