Combat Edge Intelligence

Doug Marshall vs Tom Breese

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record18-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Elite TeamTeamTeam Renegade

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Doug MarshallNow 1657
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645
Tom BreeseNow 1664
If they win+12→ 1676
If they lose-12→ 1652

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1602 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.97
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
51%
Strike accuracy
51%
6.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
62%
Strike defense
61%
0
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
71%
6.29
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Doug MarshallTom Breese
160016501700175020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (72%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
3 (17%)
Submission
12 (67%)
2 (11%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Tom Breese60%
Doug Marshall 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Tom Breese a 60% favorite over Doug Marshall in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1664), separated by just 7 points.

Doug Marshall enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Tom Breese enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Doug Marshall finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.