Dylan Smerillo vs Piotr Strus
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-4-0Record17-11-2
FeatherweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'2"
-Reach72.4"
145 lbsWeight185 lbs
3sotericTeamWCA Fight Team· 1591 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Dylan Smerillo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Piotr Strus carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1559
If they lose-25→ 1511
If they win+17→ 1532
If they lose-15→ 1500
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1553 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dylan SmerilloPiotr Strus
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Piotr Strus63%
Dylan Smerillo 37%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Piotr Strus a 63% favorite over Dylan Smerillo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dylan Smerillo's way (47%).
Dylan Smerillo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1536 to 1515, a 21-point edge.
Dylan Smerillo finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Piotr Strus 41%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.