Ebrahem Mahmoud vs Josh Stuart
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record0-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
75''ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight159 lbs
What's at stake
Ebrahem Mahmoud is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Josh Stuart carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1493
If they lose-26→ 1445
If they win+26→ 1470
If they lose-22→ 1422
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1462 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ebrahem MahmoudJosh Stuart
Combat Edge model read
Ebrahem Mahmoud66%
Josh Stuart 34%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Ebrahem Mahmoud a 66% favorite over Josh Stuart in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Ebrahem Mahmoud holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1444, a 27-point edge.
Josh Stuart enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.