Combat Edge Intelligence

Ebrahem Mahmoud vs Josh Stuart

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record0-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
75''ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight159 lbs
Diesel Fighting AcademyTeamTBD

What's at stake

Ebrahem Mahmoud is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Josh Stuart carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ebrahem MahmoudNow 1471
If they win+22→ 1493
If they lose-26→ 1445
Josh StuartNow 1444
If they win+26→ 1470
If they lose-22→ 1422

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1462 · 2 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Ebrahem MahmoudJosh Stuart
14501999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Combat Edge model read

Ebrahem Mahmoud66%
Josh Stuart 34%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Ebrahem Mahmoud a 66% favorite over Josh Stuart in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Ebrahem Mahmoud holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1444, a 27-point edge.

Josh Stuart enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.