Combat Edge Intelligence

Egor Kostyuchenko vs Francisco Prado

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-1-0Record12-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height5'10"
73"Reach69"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
TeamThe Goat Shed Academy· 1666 avg Elo · 8 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Egor KostyuchenkoNow 1650
If they win+24→ 1674
If they lose-24→ 1626
Francisco PradoNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1526 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
4.09
Not available
Strike accuracy
44%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.95
Not available
Strike defense
55%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0.94
Not available
Takedown accuracy
19%
Not available
Takedown defense
50%
Not available
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Egor KostyuchenkoFrancisco Prado
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
6 (50%)
2 (25%)
Submission
6 (50%)
5 (63%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Prado64%
Egor Kostyuchenko 36%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Prado a 64% favorite over Egor Kostyuchenko in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1652), separated by just 2 points.

Egor Kostyuchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Francisco Prado enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Egor Kostyuchenko finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Prado 100%.

Egor Kostyuchenko carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.