Combat Edge Intelligence

Elisha Ellison vs Nicolaj Wagner

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-3-0Record5-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'2"
78"Reach-
265 lbsWeight249 lbs
Combat Sport & FitnessTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Elisha EllisonNow 1534
If they win+24→ 1558
If they lose-24→ 1510
Nicolaj WagnerNow 1532
If they win+24→ 1556
If they lose-24→ 1508

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.57
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
33%
Strike accuracy
TBD
15.13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
41%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Elisha EllisonNicolaj Wagner
150015501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (80%)
KO/TKO
5 (100%)
1 (20%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolaj Wagner70%
Elisha Ellison 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 70% favorite over Elisha Ellison in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Elisha Ellison's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1534 vs 1532), separated by just 2 points.

Elisha Ellison enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Elisha Ellison finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Nicolaj Wagner 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.