Combat Edge Intelligence

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Rena Kubota

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-2-1Record15-7-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'9"Height5'3"
71"Reach63"
125 lbsWeight108 lbs
Fighters LandTeamCaesar Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ernesta KareckaiteNow 1582
If they win+24→ 1606
If they lose-24→ 1558
Rena KubotaNow 1583
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1549 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

7.28
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
42%
Strike accuracy
Not available
6.47
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
50%
Strike defense
Not available
0.75
Takedown avg.
Not available
20%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
81%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Ernesta KareckaiteRena Kubota
1600202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (33%)
KO/TKO
8 (53%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (13%)
4 (67%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Ernesta Kareckaite66%
Rena Kubota 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ernesta Kareckaite a 66% favorite over Rena Kubota in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rena Kubota's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1582 vs 1583), separated by just 1 points.

Rena Kubota enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ernesta Kareckaite finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Rena Kubota 67%.

Ernesta Kareckaite carries a 8-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.