Ernesto Rodriguez vs Mike Graves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-0Record11-1-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
73"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1663
If they win+16→ 1699
If they lose-16→ 1667
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ernesto RodriguezMike Graves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ernesto Rodriguez62%
Mike Graves 38%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Ernesto Rodriguez a 62% favorite over Mike Graves in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mike Graves's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1679 vs 1683), separated by just 4 points.
Ernesto Rodriguez enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Mike Graves enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ernesto Rodriguez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Mike Graves 73%.
Ernesto Rodriguez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.