Combat Edge Intelligence

Ernesto Rodriguez vs Shamidkhan Magomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-0Record10-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
73"Reach71.5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamK Dojo Warrior Tribe Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ernesto RodriguezNow 1679
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1663
Shamidkhan MagomedovNow 1679
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1663

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Ernesto RodriguezShamidkhan Magomedov
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (27%)
KO/TKO
5 (50%)
1 (9%)
Submission
4 (40%)
7 (64%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Ernesto Rodriguez and Shamidkhan Magomedov within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1679 vs 1679), separated by just 0 points.

Ernesto Rodriguez enters on a 9-fight win streak.

Ernesto Rodriguez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Shamidkhan Magomedov 90%.

Ernesto Rodriguez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.