Evan Esguerra vs Jacob Pais
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-7-0Record1-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'11"
TBDReach73"
140 lbsWeight145 lbs
True Fight ClubTeamKAMICUOZZI MMA & FITNESS
What's at stake
Evan Esguerra is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jacob Pais carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1537
If they lose-17→ 1505
If they win+25→ 1528
If they lose-23→ 1480
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1516 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Evan EsguerraJacob Pais
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jacob Pais60%
Evan Esguerra 40%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Jacob Pais a 60% favorite over Evan Esguerra in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Evan Esguerra's way (47%).
Evan Esguerra holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1522 to 1503, a 19-point edge.
Evan Esguerra finishes 50% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.