Evgeny Morozov vs Jefferson Nascimento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record13-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'7"
-Reach71"
170 lbsWeight154 lbs
Barracuda Fight ClubTeamRenovacao Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656
If they win+16→ 1689
If they lose-16→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Evgeny MorozovJefferson Nascimento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Evgeny Morozov67%
Jefferson Nascimento 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Evgeny Morozov a 67% favorite over Jefferson Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jefferson Nascimento's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1672 vs 1673), separated by just 1 points.
Evgeny Morozov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jefferson Nascimento enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Evgeny Morozov finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jefferson Nascimento 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.