Felipe Franco vs Mohammed Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record11-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
76"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight237 lbs
Galpao da LutaTeamWar Room Kickboxing & MMA
What's at stake
Felipe Franco is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Mohammed Usman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1677
If they lose-17→ 1645
If they win+17→ 1655
If they lose-15→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Felipe FrancoMohammed Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Felipe Franco76%
Mohammed Usman 24%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Franco a 76% favorite over Mohammed Usman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Felipe Franco holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1662 to 1638, a 24-point edge.
Felipe Franco finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mohammed Usman 55%.
Mohammed Usman carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.