Felipe Franco vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'4"
76"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Galpao da LutaTeamScottish Hit Squad
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
If they win+12→ 1674
If they lose-12→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Felipe FrancoPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Felipe Franco87%
Paul Craig 13%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Franco a 87% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1662 vs 1662), separated by just 0 points.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Felipe Franco finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.