Flavio Moura vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-7-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height-
TBDReach-
187 lbsWeight205 lbs
Gracie FusionTeamTeam Ryano Waterford
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1508
If they lose-25→ 1460
If they win+25→ 1496
If they lose-23→ 1448
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke59%
Flavio Moura 41%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 59% favorite over Flavio Moura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Flavio Moura's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1485 vs 1471), separated by just 14 points.
Flavio Moura finishes 74% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.