Fred Ettish vs Geoff Pavey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-1-0Record3-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'5"
TBDReach-
180 lbsWeight186 lbs
TeamSensei MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1518
If they lose-23→ 1470
If they win+23→ 1524
If they lose-25→ 1476
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1483 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Fred EttishGeoff Pavey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Pavey62%
Fred Ettish 38%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 62% favorite over Fred Ettish in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1493 vs 1501), separated by just 8 points.
Geoff Pavey 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.