Gable Steveson vs Justin Tafa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-0-0Record7-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
74"Reach74"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1629
If they lose-24→ 1581
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1510 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1604 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gable StevesonJustin Tafa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa63%
Gable Steveson 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 63% favorite over Gable Steveson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1605 vs 1608), separated by just 3 points.
Gable Steveson enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gable Steveson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Justin Tafa 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.