Combat Edge Intelligence

Geoff Pavey vs Ondřej Raška

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Geoff Pavey
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Geoff Pavey

“JiuJitsu”

3-3-0MiddleweightCWFC

1501Average

Tale of the tape

3-3-0Record12-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'2"
-Reach-
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Sensei MMATeamJetsaam Gym Brno

What's at stake

Geoff Pavey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Ondřej Raška carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Geoff PaveyNow 1501
If they win+22→ 1523
If they lose-26→ 1475
Ondřej RaškaNow 1466
If they win+18→ 1484
If they lose-14→ 1452

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1515 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1499 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Geoff PaveyOndřej Raška
145015001550202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (100%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
0 (0%)
Submission
5 (42%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Geoff Pavey60%
Ondřej Raška 40%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 60% favorite over Ondřej Raška in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Geoff Pavey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1501 to 1466, a 35-point edge.

Geoff Pavey finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ondřej Raška 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.