Combat Edge Intelligence

Gesias Cavalcante vs Kauê Fernandes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-12-1Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'0"
TBDReach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
BlackziliansTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gesias CavalcanteNow 1659
If they win+12→ 1671
If they lose-12→ 1647
Kauê FernandesNow 1659
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
0.41
Not available
Strike accuracy
50%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.70
Not available
Strike defense
29%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
Not available
Takedown defense
0%
Not available
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Gesias CavalcanteKauê Fernandes
16502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (32%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
10 (45%)
Submission
2 (18%)
5 (23%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Kauê Fernandes52%
Gesias Cavalcante 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kauê Fernandes a 52% favorite over Gesias Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gesias Cavalcante's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1659 vs 1659), separated by just 0 points.

Gesias Cavalcante finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Kauê Fernandes 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.