Gustavo García vs Luan Duarte
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-4-0Record14-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'9"
-Reach-
152 lbsWeight155 lbs
TeamTata Fight Team· 1516 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Luan Duarte is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Gustavo García carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+27→ 1446
If they lose-21→ 1398
If they win+14→ 1474
If they lose-18→ 1442
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gustavo GarcíaLuan Duarte
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gustavo García57%
Luan Duarte 43%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Gustavo García a 57% favorite over Luan Duarte in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Luan Duarte's way (44%).
Luan Duarte holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1460 to 1419, a 41-point edge.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.