Combat Edge Intelligence

Gustavo Rocha vs Willer Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

6-3-0Record4-0-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
-Reach-
186 lbsWeight184 lbs
Alcateia MMA· 1551 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamReal Kombat Technique

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gustavo RochaNow 1597
If they win+24→ 1621
If they lose-24→ 1573
Willer AlvesNow 1598
If they win+24→ 1622
If they lose-24→ 1574

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1505 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
Not available
Strike accuracy
Not available
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
Not available
Strike defense
Not available
Not available
Takedown avg.
Not available
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
Not available
Takedown defense
Not available
Not available
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Gustavo RochaWiller Alves
1550160020252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (25%)
2 (33%)
Submission
2 (50%)
1 (17%)
Decision
1 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Gustavo Rocha55%
Willer Alves 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gustavo Rocha a 55% favorite over Willer Alves in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Willer Alves's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1597 vs 1598), separated by just 1 points.

Willer Alves enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Gustavo Rocha finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Willer Alves 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.