Gustavo Sousa vs Joseph Holmes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record8-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
-Reach 80"
186 lbsWeight189 lbs
Team Lucas Mineiro· 1644 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamWAR Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1619
If they lose-24→ 1571
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gustavo SousaJoseph Holmes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joseph Holmes66%
Gustavo Sousa 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Holmes a 66% favorite over Gustavo Sousa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gustavo Sousa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1594), separated by just 1 points.
Joseph Holmes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Gustavo Sousa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Joseph Holmes 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.