Hugo Duarte vs Nicolaj Wagner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-3-0Record5-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
240 lbsWeight249 lbs
Hugo Duarte Luta LivreTeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1542
If they lose-23→ 1494
If they win+23→ 1553
If they lose-25→ 1505
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1495 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Hugo DuarteNicolaj Wagner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nicolaj Wagner58%
Hugo Duarte 42%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 58% favorite over Hugo Duarte in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1517 vs 1530), separated by just 13 points.
Hugo Duarte finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Nicolaj Wagner 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.