Italo Diaz vs Julio Cesar Chaves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-2-0Record9-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'10"
-Reach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
TeamCobra Thai Team
What's at stake
Julio Cesar Chaves is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Italo Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1478
If they lose-22→ 1430
If they win+15→ 1497
If they lose-17→ 1465
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1485 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Italo DiazJulio Cesar Chaves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Italo Diaz62%
Julio Cesar Chaves 38%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Italo Diaz a 62% favorite over Julio Cesar Chaves in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Julio Cesar Chaves's way (46%).
Julio Cesar Chaves holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1482 to 1452, a 30-point edge.
Italo Diaz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Julio Cesar Chaves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Julio Cesar Chaves 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.