Combat Edge Intelligence

Jackson Ross vs Nicolaj Wagner

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

3-1-0Record5-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
-Reach-
245 lbsWeight249 lbs
Scorpion Fighting SystemTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jackson RossNow 1537
If they win+24→ 1561
If they lose-24→ 1513
Nicolaj WagnerNow 1532
If they win+24→ 1556
If they lose-24→ 1508

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1484 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jackson RossNicolaj Wagner
1500155020252026

Win method breakdown

2 (67%)
KO/TKO
5 (100%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (33%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolaj Wagner70%
Jackson Ross 30%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 70% favorite over Jackson Ross in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jackson Ross's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1537 vs 1532), separated by just 5 points.

Jackson Ross finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Nicolaj Wagner 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.