Combat Edge Intelligence

Jason Reinhardt vs Rafael do Nascimento

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-3-0Record13-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'4"
TBDReach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Wand Fight TeamTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jason ReinhardtNow 1665
If they win+16→ 1681
If they lose-16→ 1649
Rafael do NascimentoNow 1665
If they win+16→ 1681
If they lose-16→ 1649

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1516 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

0.51
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
40%
Strike accuracy
Not available
4.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
44%
Strike defense
Not available
1.91
Takedown avg.
Not available
13%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
50%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Jason ReinhardtRafael do Nascimento
160016501700201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (20%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
16 (80%)
Submission
9 (69%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael do Nascimento64%
Jason Reinhardt 36%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael do Nascimento a 64% favorite over Jason Reinhardt in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Reinhardt's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1665 vs 1665), separated by just 0 points.

Jason Reinhardt enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Jason Reinhardt finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rafael do Nascimento 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.