Jason Witt vs Matthew Semelsberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record11-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
70"Reach75"
180 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1608
If they lose-12→ 1584
If they win+15→ 1624
If they lose-17→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason WittMatthew Semelsberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew Semelsberger55%
Jason Witt 45%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew Semelsberger a 55% favorite over Jason Witt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1609), separated by just 13 points.
Jason Witt enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jason Witt finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.
Matthew Semelsberger carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.