Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Stephens vs Nurbek Abdykadyrov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-23-0Record7-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71"Reach-
155 lbsWeight147 lbs
Alliance MMATeamJash-Kuch

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+12→ 1563
If they lose-12→ 1539
Nurbek AbdykadyrovNow 1556
If they win+16→ 1572
If they lose-16→ 1540

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
41%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
59%
Strike defense
TBD
1.11
Takedown avg.
TBD
38%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
62%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.37
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jeremy StephensNurbek Abdykadyrov
15502026

Win method breakdown

19 (66%)
KO/TKO
3 (43%)
2 (7%)
Submission
1 (14%)
8 (28%)
Decision
3 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Nurbek Abdykadyrov74%
Jeremy Stephens 26%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nurbek Abdykadyrov a 74% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1551 vs 1556), separated by just 5 points.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Nurbek Abdykadyrov 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.