Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Stephens vs Nurbek Abdykadyrov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-23-0Record7-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71"Reach-
155 lbsWeight147 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1648 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamJash-Kuch

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeremy StephensNow 1554
If they win+12→ 1566
If they lose-12→ 1542
Nurbek AbdykadyrovNow 1556
If they win+16→ 1572
If they lose-16→ 1540

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
41%
Strike accuracy
Not available
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
59%
Strike defense
Not available
1.11
Takedown avg.
Not available
38%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
62%
Takedown defense
Not available
0.37
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Jeremy StephensNurbek Abdykadyrov
15502026

Win method breakdown

19 (66%)
KO/TKO
3 (43%)
2 (7%)
Submission
1 (14%)
8 (28%)
Decision
3 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Jeremy Stephens65%
Nurbek Abdykadyrov 35%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 65% favorite over Nurbek Abdykadyrov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nurbek Abdykadyrov's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1554 vs 1556), separated by just 2 points.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Nurbek Abdykadyrov 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.