Jesse Butler vs Mason Carzino-Hartshorn
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record7-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'4"
40,0"Reach-
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Fortis MMATeamTeam Black
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1611
If they lose-16→ 1579
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1495 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jesse ButlerMason Carzino-Hartshorn
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jesse Butler60%
Mason Carzino-Hartshorn 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jesse Butler a 60% favorite over Mason Carzino-Hartshorn in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mason Carzino-Hartshorn's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1596), separated by just 1 points.
Jesse Butler enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jesse Butler finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Mason Carzino-Hartshorn 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.